Forum:2016 Pacific hurricane season
Future Start Last year's EPAC season was incredible, and I doubt 2016 will be anything close due to the dissipation of El Niño. However, I'm still excited to see another EPAC season, and I'm hoping for some interesting storms, as even in 2010 there were some surprises (Celia and Omeka). Plus this year may be more active then expected if it's true that the EPAC is becoming more active again as it does every 20 years or so. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 21:32, December 29, 2015 (UTC) I think the 2016 Pacific hurricane season will likely be slightly below normal due to the possibility of a La Nina event, which usually inhibits Pacific tropical cyclone development due to cooler waters and more wind shear. If we are in a warm PDO/cold AMO as some are saying, 2016 will likely be close to normal in the Pacific. Bob (talk) - Merry Christmas! 00:51, December 30, 2015 (UTC) August 10E.IVETTE Another AOI in the same place as Invest 91E On the 5-day outlook another area of low pressure is expected to form around the same place as 91E is now, and is rated at 0/20. Apparently the EPac's not getting its fill of steroids, and I've run out of ideas for the headers to describe just how many AOIs have formed in the past month. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:29, July 30, 2016 (UTC) :Wow, another AOI, which is now at 0/30. If the EPAC keeps this up, this season will end up well above average despite the latest EPAC first named storm on record. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 17:19, July 30, 2016 (UTC) ::We could see Ivette here, assuming the other invest is Howard. The EPac continues to surprise us with extreme activity since early July. ''St''''eve'' 01:20, July 31, 2016 (UTC) :::Up to 0/60. We should see Ivette from this, eventually. ''St''''eve'' 00:42, August 1, 2016 (UTC) ::::10/70, and Ivette should arrive by the end of the week. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:21, August 1, 2016 (UTC) ::::::Now 30/80. It's almost certain we will be seeing Ivette by Friday. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 15:47, August 1, 2016 (UTC) ::::::It is currently 40/90. The EPac has shown us this year that it is consuming a lot of caffeine and Gatorade. ''St''''eve'' 00:10, August 2, 2016 (UTC) 92E.INVEST Invested, and chances have gone up to 50/90. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:19, August 2, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Depression Ten-E Upgraded by NHC. Will this be Ivette later on? Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:15, August 2, 2016 (UTC) :Intensity wise, future Ivette is likely to intensify over the next few days, but gradually, due to moderate wind shear. The SHIPS guidance suggest some relaxation of the shear after 48 hours, leaving the door open to intensify into a hurricane around that time, possibly a strong one. Guidence is in good agreement over the next 6-7 days on a WNW track south of the subtropical high, and on this course, 10E will be moving over cooling waters by day 5, and thus weakening slowly. YE [[Forum:2016 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 21:43, August 2, 2016 (UTC) :::Well, this formed sooner than expected. Hopefully future Ivette can become a good looking hurricane before conditions worsen in 5 days. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 21:53, August 2, 2016 (UTC) ::::This will be the first use of the name "Ivette" after we needed a replacement for "Isis" for obvious reasons. I hope for a powerful major so the first use can be an amazing storm. [[User:Steve820 |''St]]''eve'' 23:53, August 2, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Storm Ivette Now named for the first time, forecast to become a hurricane after Howard eventually dies away. Ryan1000 12:25, August 3, 2016 (UTC) : While everyone is focused on Earl, here we got another EPac storm. It might be something big in the long run, but I think it will peak as a C2, with a slight shot at major hurricane status. Let's make the first use of the name an amazing one! ''St''''eve'' 04:45, August 4, 2016 (UTC) ::Northeasterly shear and dry air is severely hampering development at the moment. Right now Ivette looks like a large shapeless blob of convection partially obscuring the circulation center. Hopefully conditions improve by the end of the week, so Ivette can become a hurricane. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:31, August 4, 2016 (UTC) :::Well, it looks like hurricane strength is unlikely with Ivette. Unfavorable conditions really limited its potential. I really wanted a hurricane (or even an epic major) from this newly used name, not a TS. ''St''''eve'' 03:36, August 6, 2016 (UTC) :::::Ivette has already begun to weaken surprisingly early. It's down to 50 mph and is expected to weaken from here on out. In fact, with how poorly Ivette has responded to the conditions it's been in, I expect Ivette to dissipate sooner then 3 days from now as the NHC says. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 17:57, August 6, 2016 (UTC) ::::::All of its convection has been sheared to the northeast it seems, with its circulation currently exposed. Ivette should continue weakening and should die in the next couple days as it crosses into the CPac. ''St''''eve'' 03:56, August 7, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::After a brief convective burst that quickly got sheared away, Ivette is looking weaker then ever. Ivette is down to just 40 mph, and it could dissipate shortly if no more convective bursts occur. Too bad Ivette wasn't able to become (or even get close to becoming) a hurricane. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 23:07, August 7, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Depression Ivette Dissipating... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:32, August 8, 2016 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivette And gone...a little late though. Ryan1000 16:12, August 9, 2016 (UTC) 11E.JAVIER AOI: Near Earl I'm surprised no one posted about this AOI yet. It seems to be somewhat associated with Earl but could be a separate disturbance. The NHC has it at 50/80 and it could be Javier. ''St''''eve'' 03:36, August 6, 2016 (UTC) 93E.INVEST Invested. 60/80 now, and should form before Monday. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:32, August 6, 2016 (UTC) : This invest is looking quite good now, with very widespread thunderstorms and is up to 80/90 with the NHC saying a broad area of low pressure has formed. It seems to be beginning to merge with the remnants of Earl as well. This looks to be the first storm in the EPAC proper that will pose a threat to land. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 17:53, August 6, 2016 (UTC) :: JTWC says this is Rmnt Earl 03:17, August 7, 2016 (UTC) ::: ...Which is not exactly true. The JTWC should realize that it is a separate disturbance merging with the remnants of Earl and not all of the disturbance is remnants. It should be classified as Tropical Depression Eleven-E tonight or tomorrow morning, and may be Javier later tomorrow. This appears to be a large flooding threat, particularly in its current state (hopefully it goes out to sea in the future). ''St''''eve'' 03:53, August 7, 2016 (UTC) :::: Latest TCFA - WTPN21 PHNC 062030 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.9N 101.2W TO 19.6N 106.4W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 062000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 101.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) IS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 101.5W, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM 05L (EARL) THAT DISSIPATED OVER PUEBLA, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT PARTIAL MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE DEEP FLARING CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES SUGGESTS A BROAD LLCC WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PROVE FAVORABLE WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EXTENDING FROM THE EAST, LIGHT 5 TO 10 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 072030Z.// NNNN -- 06:33, August 7, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Depression Eleven-E And we have ANOTHER tropical cyclone in the EPAC. Future Javier is expected to become only a moderate TS, but that's good as it is supposed to make landfall in Baja California. They hopefully should be prepared for a storm like this after Odile though. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 14:18, August 7, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Storm Javier 18z best track has it as a 40kt TS. --'Hurricane ' 19:14, August 7, 2016 (UTC) : Javier wasn't looking great at the 3:00 PM MDT advisory, which kept it at 40 kts/1000mb, but since then it's drastically improved. Convection has increased markedly and appears to be wrapping around the beginning of an eye feature. If this is a consistant trend, I expect Javier to be upgraded to 50 kts by the intermediate advisory. It seems possible that Javier could RI even with the fast increase in organization. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 23:04, August 7, 2016 (UTC) ::: It's also been tracking farther north than where it was previously expected like Odile in 2014. Hopefully it doesn't get as strong as Odile when it hits Baja, but it is forecast to hit at least cat 1 as of now. Ryan1000 03:44, August 8, 2016 (UTC) ::: The forecast track for this storm is eerily similar to Odile's. I just hope it won't be a repeat of that storm. Javier is still at 45 kts, hurricane warning now in effect from Los Barriles to Todos los Santos in Baja. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:49, August 8, 2016 (UTC) :::: Javier is so close to Cabo San Lucas, its no more than 100 miles away. It's winds are 65 mph sustained, and it's pressure is down to 998 millibars. Hurricane watch in effect for some parts of the coast of Baja California. With it's forward speed of less than ten mph, it isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Stay safe, Baja California...[[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely,'' IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \[[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|(:-D)Chat]]/''Ta ta!'' 23:27, August 8, 2016 (UTC) :::: PS: Forgot to mention that Huricane strength is now out of the question, and it will make landfall close to Cabo San Lucas within the next few hours. [[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely,'' IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \[[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|(:-D)Chat]]/''Ta ta!'' 23:31, August 8, 2016 (UTC) :::::Javier is dying fast. No deep convection remains near the center, and winds have gone down to 40 kt. At least Javier won't wreck Baja like Earl did to Belize. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:04, August 9, 2016 (UTC) ::::: Tropical Depression Javier Well, looks like Javier is about to dissipate. Third TS in a row that never became a hurricane. But first TS to actually cause any kind of an impact to land since Darby.[[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely,'' IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \[[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|(:-D)Chat]]/''Ta ta!'' 12:36, August 9, 2016 (UTC) : It seems to be devoid of most of its convection by now and it'll die out soon enough as it passes over Baja. Hopefully impacts weren't too bad. Ryan1000 16:11, August 9, 2016 (UTC) :: I hope impacts weren't too bad as well. Looks like Javier didn't become a hurricane, but it did get quite close to reaching that status. ''St''''eve'' 19:35, August 9, 2016 (UTC) :::: Javier's sudden dissipation is good for Baja California for sure, it was supposed to be a TS much longer. I wouldn't be surprised if Javier degenerated to remnants with the rate it weakened at. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 20:38, August 9, 2016 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Javier Ok, maybe it's not remnants, but Javier is now officially dead, not having made landfall as a tropical cyclone. It's winds are down to 30 mph now, and it seems the only impacts would be minor flooding at this point. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 20:48, August 9, 2016 (UTC) AOI: East-Southeast of Hawaiian Islands Another new one is at 0/30. This could be Kay or Ulika if it develops slowly. ''St''''eve'' 19:35, August 9, 2016 (UTC) : It's down to 0/20. This might take a while to become anything, if it even develops at all. ''St''''eve'' 01:52, August 12, 2016 (UTC) : At 10/20 now but it should only develop in the CPac and potentially become Ulika. ''St''''eve'' 03:16, August 15, 2016 (UTC) ::20/30, but dry air should kill it for a while. If it survives that Ulika is possible. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:18, August 15, 2016 (UTC) AOI: 1000 Miles Southwest of Baja This shouldn't develop. It is at 10/10 and conditions are not expected to allow significant development. ''St''''eve'' 03:16, August 15, 2016 (UTC) Retirements at a glance We've had one in the Atlantic for a while now, but since the EPac has 10 storms (11 counting Pali), we can start this here too. Here's my calls: Ryan1000's retirement predictions EPac: *Agatha - 0% - Second-latest start for the EPac proper, but still failed. *Blas - 0% - A strong hurricane, but was a fishspinner regardless. *Celia - 0% - Weaker than Blas, and also a fish. *Darby - 5% - It wasn't a fail since it did make it to Hawaii as a tropical storm, which isn't very common and is unique for July, but if Iselle of 2014 didn't get retired, Darby probably won't be either. *Estelle - 0% - Almost became a hurricane (and could be upgraded in post-analysis), but otherwise meh. *Frank - 0% - Defied predictions and became a hurricane, but still didn't hit land. *Georgette 0% - Became a major briefly, but died faster than it strengthened and didn't hit land. *Howard - 0% - Moderate TS fishspinner. *Ivette - 0% - Howard 2.0. *Javier - 1% - Brought some minor impacts to southern Baja, but nothing severe. CPac: *Pali - 0% - An extremely rare January hurricane, but remained far away from any land. There's my thoughts. Ryan1000 03:44, August 8, 2016 (UTC) TG's Retirements (Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%) EPac: * Agatha: 0% - Agatha was a fail, nonetheless. * Blas: 0% - Blas was a nice looking hurricane, but it didn't affect land. * Celia: 0% - Celia, like most of the others, was a fish. * Darby: 5% - Darby made landfall as a TS in Hawaii, bringing minimal impacts. Darby also refused to die. * Estelle: 0% - Estelle was another fail. * Frank: 0% - Became a hurricane unexpectedly but regardless, Frank was a fish. * Georgette: 0% - Georgette was a very strong hurricane, but she was a fish. * Howard: 0% - Howard only brought rain to Hawaii as a remnant low. * Ivette: 0% - Ivette was a fairly weak storm, and it was a failed storm. * Javier: 0% - Javier only brought rain showers to Baja California. CPac: * Pali: 0% - Very nice start to the season, however, it was a fish. TG 12:05, August 8, 2016 (UTC) Ibahan1829's List of Retirement Candidates East Pacific: #'Tropical Storm Agatha': 0%: You tried again, Agatha, you failed again, Agatha. #'Category 4 Blas': 0%: It sailed the ocean blue. That's it not even a landfall, nope. The only hurricanes I prefer are these ones like Blas. #'Category 2 Celia': 0 again%: Good Celia, you kinda copied what you did six years ago and not hit land, not cause a fatality. As a bonus, you became an awesome annular hurricane at one point. Good Celia. #'Category 3 Darby': 0.5%: You tried, Darby, you thought you could copy Iselle. Even Iselle was worse for the Big Island than Darby was. See you sometime in 2022, Darby. #'Tropical Storm Estelle': 0%: So close to that, that 75 mph status. #'Category 1 Frank,' ' Category 4 Georgette,' Tropical Storm Howard: all 0%: Frank equals weak hurricane that did nothing, reached it's 2010 counterpart in strength. Georgette equals surprising, C4 monster that also did nothing. Howard equals meh TS weaker than Estelle, and did nothing anywhere, like Pali, Agatha, Blas, Celia, Estelle, Frank and Georgette that came before this. #'Tropical Storm Ivette': No%: Wimpy Tropical Storm that had much potential to become a category one, or even a good ole' two like Celia. But NO, it became a scaredy cat and be even weaker than even Estelle and Howard. Agatha had it's reasons not to do anything, but Ivette just decided to be lazy, to not even try. I'm moving on. Next! #'Tropical Storm Javier': 0.0000000000001%: First storm this year to REALLY threaten land. It barely did anything to the land except for some rain. Javier will stay for 2022. Central Pacific: #'Category 2 Pali': I don't even need a percentage to give to Pali. This storm is what you call an Enigma. CATEGORY 2 MERE MILES FROM THE EQUATOR IN JANUARY!? Crap, Pali! Pressure lower than 980 makes Pali the strongest January Central Pacific hurricane since the dawn of reliable records(yes, this includes EKEKA 92). And, best of all, it existed right along with ANOTHER huricane in the Atlantic. This is practically a once in a lifetime event here. We might never get to see an event like this again in our lifetimes...[[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely,'' IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \[[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|(:-D)Chat]]/''Ta ta!'' 12:52, August 9, 2016 (UTC) Steve's retirement predictions & storm grades: I decided not to use my Atlantic scale for this basin, since this basin seems to have different retirement standards and it would be a bit hard to figure out the EPac's chances of retirement based on a scale. (Retirement colors: 0%, 0.01%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, 40%, 45%, 50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85%, 90%, 95%, 99%, 100%) (Grading colors: A+++++, A++, A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D+, D, D-, E, F, Z) East Pacific: *One-E: Grade: F''' Retirement: '''A TD can be retired? :P - It failed to even become a tropical storm. The only reason it doesn't get a Z is because it caused impacts. *Agatha: Grade: D+ Retirement: 0% - Gets a large amount of credit for forming rapidly and unexpectedly, and for finally breaking the huge quiet streak. It did the best it can against the unfavorable conditions it faced, but was still a weak TS. *Blas: Grade: A''' Retirement: '''0% - An amazing Category 4 fishspinner. *Celia: Grade: C+ Retirement: 0% - Failed to become a major and barely peaked as a C2. However, it tried. *Darby: Grade: A-''' Retirement: '''5% - Gets credit for being a major, lasting a while, and becoming one of few storms to strike Hawaii. There is a tiny chance of retirement, but I doubt that will happen. *Estelle: Grade: E''' Retirement: '''0% - Estelle disappointed me by not becoming a hurricane. It isn't a complete fail, since it did almost reach hurricane status. But since it failed to become one despite predictions for it to do so, it gets a bad grade. It will be upgraded to at least a D if upgraded to a hurricane post-analysis. *Frank: Grade: D+ Retirement: 0% - Impressed me by becoming a last-minute hurricane. It did not become one despite predictions for it to do so until the last minute, causing its grade to suffer a little. *Georgette: Grade: A''' Retirement: '''0% - Amazing storm that RI'd at the last minute, but it barely scraped C4 status. The fact that it RI'd quite unexpectedly raises its grade a lot. I like the effort that Georgette put in during its life. *Howard: Grade: E''' Retirement: '''0% - Nothing special. It struggled with westerly shear and upwelling but despite those factors, it managed 60 mph, preventing it from being a complete fail. *Ivette: Grade: F''' Retirement: '''0% - Wow, just wow. Despite continued forecasts for a potentially big hurricane (at least C2), it didn't even become one at all. It still reached 60 mph, preventing a "Z" classification. Did that shear monster attack you, Ivette the scaredy cat? Haha *Javier: Grade: D''', Retirement: '''1% - Caused some impacts in Mexico and Baja, but failed to become a hurricane. It reached 65 mph, which proves that it tried. Central Pacific: *Pali: Grade: A++ Retirement: 0% - Damn, that was amazing. Extremely early storm and became a Category 2 as well, and it was very close to the equator. It could have gotten my highest grade possible if it became a major. No land effects, so no retirement. ''St''''eve'' 19:44, August 9, 2016 (UTC) ---- KN2731's storm grades & retirements Grading from A to F, retirements in multiples of 5. Eastern Pacific # Agatha: grade E''', retirement '''0%. Span up quickly and helped to make things more favourable for Blas, but otherwise failed. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:56, August 11, 2016 (UTC) # Blas: grade A''', retirement '''0%. Nice annular hurricane that didn't affect land. Thumbs up. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:56, August 11, 2016 (UTC) # Celia: grade C''', retirement '''0%. Made it to C2, but was quite ragged the whole time. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:56, August 11, 2016 (UTC) # Darby: grade B''', retirement '''5%. Steadfast major that lasted 2 full weeks to Hawaii. But if Iselle 2014 didn't go, you're not going either. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:56, August 11, 2016 (UTC) # Estelle: grade E''', retirement '''0%. If this doesn't get upgraded in post-analysis, I'll downgrade to F. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:56, August 11, 2016 (UTC) # Frank: grade C''', retirement '''0%. Nearly failed, but became a last-minute hurricane. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:56, August 11, 2016 (UTC) # Georgette: grade A+, retirement 0%. Beautiful. Just the type of hurricane I like. Could have lasted longer though. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:56, August 11, 2016 (UTC) # Howard: grade F''', retirement '''0%. Failed to become the 8th July storm, unless it was found to be one earlier in post-analysis. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:56, August 11, 2016 (UTC) # Ivette: grade F''', retirement '''0%. You chose not to rapidly intensify? What a joke. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:59, August 11, 2016 (UTC) # Javier: grade E''', retirement '''5%. First storm to pose a hurricane threat this year, but failed eventually. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:56, August 11, 2016 (UTC) Central Pacific # Pali: grade A++++++++++++++++, retirement 0%. No words to describe how amazing this storm is. Ultimately won't be retired though since Ekeka didn't go either. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:56, August 11, 2016 (UTC) Post-season changes Well, TD One-E's TCR is out, so I'll add this here. Not much difference, if any. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:10, August 9, 2016 (UTC)